# Too many rainy days

I don’t know if it’s just me who thinks that it rains too often. I checked the weather model on wiki and think it is flawed. I haven’t run simulations on my software but i suppose the weather has a better chance to stay in rain circle. In real life, the weather pattern is like “drizzle - rain - thunderstorm - rain - cloud - sunny”. In the game, however, when it comes to cloudy, the change to sunny is only 30 percent, there is a 70 percent probability to go back to rainy. Having a look at the odd of from all kinds of rain to sunny or clear directly makes you even more desperate, the average probability from rain to sunny or cloud is 20/8=2.5 per cent in Spring and 50/5=10 percent in Summer!(roughly as different lasting time) That’s ridiculous! Now I would calculate the probability that a rainy period(all types of rain) will move to sunny or clear weather. There are two ways of doing so, directly or through cloud. Given that directly chance is almost 0, the second chance is P(rain to cloud) * P(cloud to sunny) = (1.2/6) *0.3 = 0.06!!! Aggregate probability from rain to sunny or clear is 0.06+0.025=0.085, not to mention you won’t stay in sunny weather long before it turns to cloudy. And when its cloudy, you are more likely to slip in to rainy season again. I’ve never been to new English, dunno if the weather there is like this or not. At least make the cloudy day 0.5 chance to turn to sunny or clear.

I had a string of bad luck with a 2 day rain spree. 30 minute interval waits when I wasn’t trying desperately to use my xp for the day.

it was terrible

I think it depends on the season, too: Summer tends to have sunshine, Autumn & Spring are rainy, and Winter has snow.

That said, one or two full days of rain does get incredibly annoying. At some point a “clouds are frickin’ empty” check ought to kick in, especially since the default season length makes each day roughly equivalent to a week of real-time.