I didn’t see a random NPC in the the last half in-game year. Because the default spawn rate is 0.10 i didn’t worry, but now it seems more a bug than a feature:
EDIT:
I enabled the debug menu also i looked into the code.
In every hour random NPCs has a percentage chance to spawn which is:
NPC_spawn_rate*(0.8 raised to the power of the actual_number_of_NPCs)
I have the default NPC spawn rate of 0.1 and have 13 static NPCs (survivor farm and bandit camp) , the chance for a new random npc is: 0.005%. With the maximum NPC spawn rate (100) the chance would be 5%.
I think the NPC spawn calculation should be change because after few NPCs the chance is so low, NPC spawn rate makes a little difference.
–Ya, I was about to post something like this myself. I updated the game (Yay for the launcher, It’s been so long since I’ve updated), and suddenly no NPCs felt like spawning. Only the ‘static’ NPCs, such as the one you’d find in the evac shelter. It’s rather odd. I set my spawn rate to 0.50 and nothing has happened, it’s almost the end of a 20 day summer.
My current game started with an NPC spawn of 0.25, and I didn’t see anyone for weeks. Then I raised it to 0.5, and I saw 1 NPC in about 3 weeks and exploring quite a bit. Then I raised it to 0.7, and saw 2 NPCs within the next day or so.
I think either the default spawn rate got lowered a lot, or people who want to play with some NPCs need to raise about 0.5.
I enabled the debug menu also i looked into the code. I have 13 NPCs on the map, 2 followers, 8 npcs on the farm i helping to turn into a survivor camp and 3 bandits far away. Because the bandits placed to the same place i’m think they are static NPCs too.
In every hour random NPCs has a percentage chance to spawn which is:
NPC_spawn_rate*(0.8 raised to the power of the actual_number_of_NPCs)
So because i have the default spawn rate and 13 NPCs, the chance for a new npc is:
0.1*(0.8 raised to the power of 13)=0.005%
Even with the maximum spawn rate (100) there would be only 5% chance, with 24 NPCs only 0.5% and with 44 NPCs only 0.005%.
I think the NPC spawn calculation should be change because NPC spawn rate now makes a little difference.
–Only 5% per in-game hour at maximum spawn rate? And it gets lower that fast? That seems really stupid. Unless they change that, I’m just going to forever have NPC spawn rate at maximum. And maybe try to find a mod to make it so that there is no such thing as maximum.
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Well it is 5% after 13 living NPCs on the map. the default chance with 0 npc is 100% but going down with every existing NPCs like this:
80%, 64%, 52%, 41%, 33%, 26%, 21%, 17%, 13%
11%, 8%, 7%, 5%, 4%, 3%, 3%, 2%, 2%, 1% etc…
You can see a new NPCs if you travel far from the existing ones because the game “unloads” them so there will be fewer of them. But if you play on the same large area you will stick with your few hiding NPCs. 
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